Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

STUDIES ON THE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON PULICAT USING SCENARIOS

T. Lynda Keren1 and R. Moses Inbaraj

Abstract

Coastal lagoons are sensitive and vulnerable systems. Climate change impacts the lagoons by causing an accelerated impact to the already existing stressors to the ecosystem and affects the biodiversity of coastal lagoons. Alterations in temperature and precipitation influence a number of physiochemical parameters that impact the lagoon’s processes. The objective of this paper is to determine the various Climate change projections and its impact on the biodiversity of Pulicat lagoon. Climate change projections were obtained based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) Special Report on Emission Studies (SRES). The scenarios considered are A1F1 (worst case scenario) and B1 (best case scenario). An Ensemble constructed using 21Global Climate Change Models (GCMs) was applied to obtain projections for the years 2050 and 2100 with 1990 as the baseline. Real time temperature and light measurements were made in the Pulicat lagoon using loggers. The highest temperature recorded in Pulicat is 37.604°C and the average is 30.975°C. The lowest value recorded is 27.173°C. The highest temperature projected for Pulicat region according to A1F1 scenario is 37.528°C for the year 2100. All the scenarios predict an increase in temperature for all the seasons. Precipitation results show an increase in rainfall during monsoon and premonsoon seasons and a decrease in rainfall during summer and post monsoon season. The study shows that suitable management measures should be adopted to protect the biodiversity of Pulicat lagoon from the impacts of Climate change.