Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

PREDICTION ON THE POPULATION AND LAND NEED FOR HOUSING USING DYNAMIC MODELS

Ketut Mahendra Kuswara and Gufran Darma Dirawan

Abstract

This research is about prediction on population and landthe need applying dynamic model as a result of building outside circle main road. The research therefore aims to predict 1) the population increase due to road building, and 2) the need of land for housing building, by using Sim Power Program. The obtained result is, there is population increase at 4.4%, and the very main factor that has made the population increase is in migrating people (immigrants), where the prediction of population number of Sikumana (an administrative village) at the initial year is15.791, while at the ending year, that is after 30 years, is 58.466 people. The prediction on land need for house building, based on actual population growth after 30 years, is 168,4547 ha. The minimum scenario predicts that population growth at 2,1% is still able to provide land until the year of 75th. The optimum scenario at 3,5%, Sikumana is still able to provide land need for housing until the year of 46th. It is far different from maximum scenario at 6,41% that Sikumana is able to provide land need of 234 ha for housing until the year of 25th, that is in 2037, including the dry field (for secondary crops like vegetables) of 242,5 ha. The road building, population growth, land need, and land lack (limitation) are integral components which are dynamic. The very important thing to be considered is the process of balanced or unbalanced change from time to time, so it is very necessary to have holistic and comprehensive policy and planning.