Pollution Research Paper

Vol 37, Issue 2, 2018; Page No.(307-314)

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION ON FOREST CARBON STOCKS IN MALAYSIA USING LUND POTSDAM JENA MODEL

M. AZIAN, M.J.C. NORSHEILLA, M. SAMSUDIN, P. ISMAIL, M.S. NIZAM, M.N. MOHD SUKRI, Z. NOOR FARAHANIZAN AND MOHD M. SYAZWAN FAISAL

Abstract

Increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in the atmosphere due to human activities has triggered the need to predict the future impact on the forested land. Projecting CO2 emission associated with forestry is crucial in balancing terrestrial carbon and contributes to the adaptation of forest towards global warming and climate change. In accordance with the awareness on climate change, the projection climate change models of Lund Potsdam Jena (LPJ) on forested land in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak, are used in this study. Three scenarios are tested on 1) baseline data from the year 1976 to 2005 with CO2 at 354 ppm and temperature at 30.5°C; 2) baseline data with RCP 8.5 projection of CO2 increase from 354 ppm to 801ppm, and temperature increase from 30.5°C to 32.8°C from the year 2070 to 2099; and 3) baseline data with RCP 8.5 C90 projection of CO2 at 354 ppm with temperature increase from 30.5 to 32.8°C from the year 2070 to 2099. The study found forest C stock in Malaysia to increase as much as 13% or 12.8 GgC/ha by 2099 where by both CO2 and temperature increase under RCP 8.5 scenario. On the other hand, forest C stock can decrease as much as -7% or 8 GgC/ha by 2099 when temperature alone increases under the RCP8.5 C 90 scenario. A preliminary result of the future impacts of forest C stock on all the states in Malaysia is also discussed.

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