IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN UJJAIN, M.P., INDIAKAMAL BARMAN, ASHOK K. SHARMA, SARITA SHARMA AND SANJAY VERMAAbstract This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on Ujjain agriculture. The author has tried to estimate the effect of random year-to-year variation in weather on agricultural output using a 10-year district- panel data set covering over different area locations. These panel estimates incorporate farmers within-year adaptations to annual weather shocks. The author feels that these estimates, derived from short-run weather effects, are also relevant for predicting the medium-run economic impact of climate change if farmers are constrained in their ability to recognize and adapt quickly to changing mean climate. The predicted medium-run impact is negative and statistically significant. It is felt that projected climate change reduces major crop yields by 4.5 to 9%. The long-run impact is dramatic, reducing yields by 25 percent or more in the absence of longrun adaptation. These results suggest that climate change is likely to impose significant costs on the agriculture economy unless farmers can quickly recognize and adapt to increasing temperatures.
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