Ecology, Environment and Conservation Paper

A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL DROUGHT RISK ANALYSIS IN THE FREE STATE DROUGHT-HIT MUNICIPALITIES, SOUTH AFRICA

Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

Abstract

Drought causes about 78% of all natural disasters related deaths in Africa (Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa. Specifically in South Africa, rainfall climate is of great variability with very wide fluctuations in seasonal rainfall deviations since 1960 giving a need for rainfall deficit assessment. Following a drought disaster declaration in some provinces of South Africa, the water and sanitation minister of South Africa, Nomvula Mokonyane signed a memorandum of understanding with the Danish government in combating the challenges of water in South Africa. For better and effective resources allocation mobilization, a risk assessment is vital, therefore this study aimed at assessing drought risk for all municipalities in the Free State drought-hit. Data was collected from Statistics South Africa in quantifying vulnerability. A Patnaik and Narain Method was used in computing the composite vulnerability index. In order to calculate risk level, hazard assessment done by the author was adopted, where each municipality’s severity value was computed. Drought hazard analysis was computed from four input parameters namely; precipitation, temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The results showed the drought risk highest in the northern and eastern parts of Free State province indicating that it is actually imperative that emergency responses consider these parts before any other part of the province. The northern and eastern parts of this province is where most farms are located.